Coronavirus related conversation - Page 37


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  1. #361
    Quote Originally Posted by Ma'am View Post
    I don't quite understand "flattening the curve." If the curve is flattened because people are on lockdown, then wouldn't it immediately "unflatten" as soon as they the lockdown is lifted?
    I think it only works if the lockdown is fairly extensive. Because, yes, if you lift the lockdown too soon, the cases would spike. There needs to be some development that makes it advisable to lift the lockdown - worst case scenario it could be herd immunity because the majority of people have gotten the illness (but gotten it spaced out over time so the hospitals aren't overwhelmed). Might also be a vaccine or, more optimistically, the ability to test extensively (so we can start quarantining only those who have the illness, as opposed to locking down everyone on the suspicion that they MAY have the illness).

  2. #362
    It also only works if people take social distancing seriously. A lot of people don’t. Older people in higher risk category take it more seriously. I see under-40s whose chance of dying if they get covid-19 is 0.2% ignoring the 2M rule while seniors over 70 who have a 15% chance of not surviving an infection observe it. On the other hand, under 40’s occupy 30% of the total hospital beds. What does that tell you?
    Last edited by TL Murphy; March 30th, 2020 at 03:59 AM.

  3. #363
    Patron Foxee's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by TL Murphy View Post
    On the other hand, under 40’s occupy 30% of the total hospital beds. What does that tell you?
    While I realize that there might be a certain amount of irresponsibility to explain this (certainly spring break and Mardi Gras did us no favors) another consideration is that a lot of people are working in their 20's, 30's, and 40's and could be in any number of essential job functions more likely to bring them into contact with the virus.

  4. #364
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    Perhaps when the initial onslaught of the virus is contained and infections become much more manageable, then the assumption it appears to be by the masses that we can all carry on as normal and its all 'tickety boo'.

    Unless there is a vaccine, then no oldie or sick will..................

    Fly.........Go on a cruise..........Go on a coach/travel holiday............Visit a hotel........Large audience sport/music/theatre........Shop at large stores.

    Some hotels and tourist places rely on the silver currency for at least 50% of their business. I assume airlines rely on a fair amount of the silver passengers as well.

    So basically there are a few obvious problems which will not go away without a cheap effective vaccine.

    You will be hearing about this virus for a long time to come yet me thinks.

  5. #365
    Foxee, whatever the reason that people under 40 are contracting the virus in larger numbers is not the point. The point is that with such a low death rate in that age group, it is remarkable that nearly a third of the severe cases are people under 40. That means A LOT more people under 40 are infected than older age groups. That makes the under-40 age group the primary carriers and spreaders of the virus. Yet personal observation indicates they are the last to respect social distancing. One would assume it's because they are not concerned about dying themselves, which is extremely selfish since they could pass it to someone who will die. Where is the moral compass there?

  6. #366
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    Quote Originally Posted by TL Murphy View Post
    Foxee, whatever the reason that people under 40 are contracting the virus in larger numbers is not the point. The point is that with such a low death rate in that age group, it is remarkable that nearly a third of the severe cases are people under 40. That means A LOT more people under 40 are infected than older age groups. That makes the under-40 age group the primary carriers and spreaders of the virus. Yet personal observation indicates they are the last to respect social distancing. One would assume it's because they are not concerned about dying themselves, which is extremely selfish since they could pass it to someone who will die. Where is the moral compass there?
    I heard a doctor explain why oldies die from this and other diseases and the reason is after 60 your immune system degrades. So the older you are after 60 the less effective your immune system is at combating disease.
    Last edited by Biro; March 30th, 2020 at 08:12 AM.

  7. #367
    Quote Originally Posted by The Green Shield View Post
    Here in the States, we seem to be shutting down on state levels because our [redacted] leaders can't be bothered to do what's necessary, our [redacted] president even wanting to open up the entire country by Easter despite health experts telling him that's a bad idea.


    Also, I'm not sure how accurate the numbers are but this is what I got from CNN:




    President Redacted Trump has since acknowledged that Easter is too soon.


  8. #368
    Quote Originally Posted by Ma'am View Post
    I don't quite understand "flattening the curve." If the curve is flattened because people are on lockdown, then wouldn't it immediately "unflatten" as soon as they the lockdown is lifted?
    This video explores a simple SIR model under various scenarios including that one.


  9. #369
    This morning I heard that one of the lunch workers, who prepares food for school lunches that are being distributed to families who are learning at home, has been diagnosed with the virus. So they are not serving the free lunches for a week in that school district. This was really eye-opening, how deeply the virus is traveling. Then I heard in CA people are still going and gathering on the beaches, many ignoring the warnings. How many people have to die before anyone realizes how insidious this virus is? Wiping down pizza delivery boxes, using gloves to handle uncooked, pre-packaged food. Makes me really nervous about ordering in, too. I'm going to be wearing gloves next shopping trip, I guess. Stay safe - and smart - everyone!
    When the night has come
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  10. #370
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    SueC, I read somewhere that we should wash our hands after shopping, wash hands before unpacking the shopping, and then, wash hands before preparing food? A bit extreme? Who can say?
    If i post a comment on a "WIP", LOOK! I'm a reader that's all, and i can only tell how i feel, as a READER, giving/offering feedback. Hoping to learn and grow here. So please, tell me where i'm going wrong.

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